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Angola: An African partner to the US

When President Joe Biden promised during the December 2022 African Leaders Summit to visit Africa before his term ended, many observers probably thought he meant to South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria or some other country that has a well-known link to the United States. However, the southern African nation of Angola has proven its value to this country, which is why Biden is willing to go there.

Of course, the trip has been postponed because as president, Biden has an obligation to help handle the back-to-back hurricanes that have hit the southeastern United States hard in a two-week period. The US president not only has the authority to engage federal assistance but also the responsibility to do so.

However, the trip has not been cancelled; rather, it is being postponed for the time being. It would be Biden’s first trip to Africa as president.

It is seen as the capstone to the effort to charm the Angolans, which has included the first ever visit of an American secretary of defense to Angola, and an Oval Office with Angolan President João Lourenço.

Angola is a lower middle-income country located in southern Africa with a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$106 billion, a population of 35 million and a per capita income estimate of US$ 3,300. It is the sixth largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa.

Angola’s economy is overwhelmingly driven by its oil sector. Oil production and its supporting activities contribute about 50 percent of GDP, more than 70 percent of government revenue, and more than 90 percent of the country’s exports.

Angola is an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member and subject to its direction regarding oil production levels. Its oil production output is around 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd).

Angola’s oil production surpassed that of Nigeria (1.02 million bpd in May), making it the largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, despite showing declines itself from 1.18 million barrels per day. However, writing on the Habari NetworkN.J. Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, said that this focus on petroleum is in the process of changing in Angola.

“Angola has successfully transitioned from being a declining oil producer to becoming a key destination for global oil investments,” Ayuk wrote. “Despite a declining trend in crude oil production due to aging fields, Angola remains a significant player in the sector, producing over 1.1 million barrels per day as of September 2024.”

“Under the leadership of President João Lourenço, the government has embarked on a comprehensive reform program that allows the national oil company, Sonangol, to represent local interests while partnering with international investors.”

Angola has long had a reputation for massive corruption, especially involving the oil sector, and Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index found that there has been no recent change in that area in the country, which ranks 33 on a scale from 0 (“highly corrupt”) to 100 (“very clean”) out of 180 countries assessed.

Unless corruption is tackled, there could be significant social upheaval in Angola.

Meanwhile, the predominantly young population is struggling with high rates of unemployment, and polling shows that less than 40 percent of young people approve of the way the president and members of parliament are performing, according to a report from the Council on Foreign Relations. Young Angolans have good reasons to be deeply cynical about their own government and its “democratic” credentials, the Council stated.

The country scores twenty-eight out of a possible one-hundred points in Freedom House’s latest Freedom in the World report.

President Lourenço’s government has reacted to popular protests with new laws that restrict media freedoms and threaten protesters, or anyone documenting the security forces’ response to protests, with long prison terms. Grand scale corruption and jarring inequality continue to characterize the country’s political economy.

The U.S. government raised questions at the outset of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2000 when Angola was included despite a terrible reputation for corruption, which was a key indicator for inclusion in the trade program. Unless corruption is tackled, there could be significant social upheaval in Angola.

The United States is depending on the Government of Angola taking steps to engage in economic reform, including privatizing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), prioritizing efforts to combat corruption, and increasing engagement with the U.S. government and private sector on commercial issues. One hopes its efforts are successful.

U.S. support for Angola

Since establishing diplomatic relations with Angola in 1993, U.S. foreign policy goals in Angola have been to promote and strengthen Angola’s democratic institutions, promote economic prosperity, improve health, and consolidate peace and security, including maritime security. The U.S. has worked with Angola to remove thousands of landmines that had posed a severe safety risk to citizens, preventing agriculture from advancing.

The U.S. also helped war refugees and internally displaced people return to their homes.

More recently, the U.S. government has become involved in a major infrastructure project in Angola. The flagship of the plan – a railway project known as the Lobito corridor that connects copper and cobalt mines (as well as sources of other critical minerals) in the Democratic Republic of Congo to an Atlantic port in Angola – is already far advanced, Helaina Matza, acting special coordinator for the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, told reporters.

“In many ways, there’s a good deal of bipartisan support,” Matza said in response to a question on what a new administration could mean for the Lobito corridor and other efforts. “Especially around how we approach elements of the energy transition and the way that we support clean energy and critical mineral supply chains.”

The Biden administration has championed the Lobito project as part of a Group of Seven infrastructure plan. The program aims to deploy US$600 billion by 2027 to close the infrastructure gap around the world to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and secure access to minerals critical to the energy transition.

The International Development Finance Corp. board approved a US$553 million loan for the Lobito Atlantic Railway in June, and completed Congressional notification in mid-July. The group of companies that won the concession to operate the rail line linking Angola’s Lobito port to the Congo border expects the first disbursement in the first quarter of 2025.

The January 2024 Lobito Corridor investment report stated that this investment represents the first alternative from Washington DC to China’s BRI. Future infrastructure investments in Africa from the Western democracies hinge on the Lobito Corridor’s success.

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